Facing renewed tariffs and an unpredictable U.S. trade posture, Beijing sees opportunity in uncertainty.
Rather than retreat, Chinese policymakers are accelerating efforts to embed the country’s vast manufacturing base into major economic blocs, including the European Union, Gulf states and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
A Reuters review of more than 100 Chinese-language papers written by state-backed trade scholars since 2017 shows a coordinated strategy to counter Washington’s containment efforts.
A Reuters review of more than 100 Chinese-language papers written by state-backed trade scholars since 2017 shows a coordinated strategy to counter Washington’s containment efforts.
Many of the papers are affiliated with institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Peking University, both influential in advising China’s top leadership.
At the heart of the strategy is a long-term recalibration: reduce dependence on U.S. markets while deepening integration elsewhere.
At the heart of the strategy is a long-term recalibration: reduce dependence on U.S. markets while deepening integration elsewhere.
Chinese officials are reportedly working to fast-track nearly 20 trade deals that have been under negotiation for years, even as concerns persist over China’s trade surplus, market access barriers and weak domestic demand.
The blueprint is already being implemented. A recent agreement with Canada during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit to Beijing included tariff reductions on Chinese electric vehicles.
The blueprint is already being implemented. A recent agreement with Canada during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit to Beijing included tariff reductions on Chinese electric vehicles.
Diplomats say similar arrangements are being explored with other nations to dilute U.S. leverage.
“If successful, Beijing could place itself at the centre of a new, China-shaped multilateral order,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank.
In contrast to earlier nationalist rhetoric, China’s tone has shifted. As Beijing prepares to host Trump in April, its diplomats are urging countries to defend multilateralism and open trade.
“If successful, Beijing could place itself at the centre of a new, China-shaped multilateral order,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank.
In contrast to earlier nationalist rhetoric, China’s tone has shifted. As Beijing prepares to host Trump in April, its diplomats are urging countries to defend multilateralism and open trade.
In January, China pledged development cooperation to Lesotho after it was hit with steep U.S. tariffs. State media also announced zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries.
China is simultaneously upgrading trade infrastructure. It is pitching artificial intelligence-powered customs systems to regional partners and modernising digital trade corridors under President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
China is simultaneously upgrading trade infrastructure. It is pitching artificial intelligence-powered customs systems to regional partners and modernising digital trade corridors under President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
At the Vietnamese border, China’s so-called “Friendship Port” reportedly uses home-grown AI tools to cut customs waiting times by 20%, facilitating faster exports.
Another pillar of Beijing’s strategy is “anti-decoupling.” Scholars argue that China must entrench itself so deeply in global supply chains that trading partners cannot afford to sever ties under U.S. pressure.
Another pillar of Beijing’s strategy is “anti-decoupling.” Scholars argue that China must entrench itself so deeply in global supply chains that trading partners cannot afford to sever ties under U.S. pressure.
This includes influencing global standards in areas such as intellectual property and digital commerce.
Yet China’s massive $1.2 trillion trade surplus complicates its pitch. European officials have expressed concern that expanded access could flood their markets with low-cost Chinese goods. A landmark 2020 EU-China investment agreement remains frozen amid political tensions.
Critics also question whether China can champion free trade while maintaining restrictive practices at home. Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator, said Beijing must go beyond rhetoric to address imbalances and coercive measures.
Still, Beijing appears undeterred. Chinese policymakers believe structural adjustments at home — including boosting consumption in the upcoming five-year plan — will strengthen their hand abroad.
Trump has three years left in office, but Chinese strategists are thinking beyond that horizon. By the time U.S. policy shifts again, they hope China will already be indispensable to global commerce.
The contest is no longer just about tariffs. It is about who writes the rules of 21st-century trade — and Beijing is determined to be at the centre of that system.
Yet China’s massive $1.2 trillion trade surplus complicates its pitch. European officials have expressed concern that expanded access could flood their markets with low-cost Chinese goods. A landmark 2020 EU-China investment agreement remains frozen amid political tensions.
Critics also question whether China can champion free trade while maintaining restrictive practices at home. Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator, said Beijing must go beyond rhetoric to address imbalances and coercive measures.
Still, Beijing appears undeterred. Chinese policymakers believe structural adjustments at home — including boosting consumption in the upcoming five-year plan — will strengthen their hand abroad.
Trump has three years left in office, but Chinese strategists are thinking beyond that horizon. By the time U.S. policy shifts again, they hope China will already be indispensable to global commerce.
The contest is no longer just about tariffs. It is about who writes the rules of 21st-century trade — and Beijing is determined to be at the centre of that system.
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